ANZ Share Price ASX: Today, Forecast & Analysis

Anyone who holds ANZ shares or watches the ASX banks has likely noticed the price hovering around A$34, a number that hides a big share buyback, a dividend yield north of 5%, and a split among analysts about where the stock goes next. This guide sorts the confirmed facts from the open questions so you can decide what matters for your portfolio.

Current share price (ANZ.AX): A$34.12 · Market capitalisation: A$102.84 billion · Change today: -1.04% (A$0.36) · Dividend yield (trailing): 5.2% · Analysts covering: 14 · Consensus rating: Hold

Key facts about ANZ Group Holdings are summarised below.

What is happening to ANZ shares today?

Current price and movement

ANZ shares last traded at A$34.12, down 1.04% on the day, with a market cap of A$102.84 billion (ANZ Shareholder Centre (company records)). No major company-specific announcement drove the move; the slip tracks with a slightly weaker ASX 200 session for banks.

Recent news driving the price

• No single news item triggered today’s move — the broader market dipped 0.3%.
• ANZ’s strategic reset (including plans to cease the buyback) was absorbed weeks ago and isn’t driving fresh selling.
• Trading volumes are consistent with the 30-day average, indicating no unusual accumulation or distribution.

The implication: The absence of a catalyst means the share price may remain range-bound until the next earnings report or RBA decision.

What is the future outlook for ANZ shares?

Analyst consensus and price targets

Fourteen analysts cover ANZ, and the consensus is Hold — a mix of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings. Price targets range from A$30 to A$38.

The gap between Morningstar’s A$33 fair value and UBS’s A$36.50 sell target shows a wide dispersion — the market is deeply unsure.

Key factors influencing the outlook

• Interest rates: RBA policy directly affects net interest margins. A slower cutting cycle would pressure ANZ’s lending income.
• Loan growth: Business lending, ANZ’s strongest segment, is sensitive to economic confidence.
• Cost management: ANZ targets a mid-40% cost/income ratio and 12% return on tangible equity by fiscal 2028.
• Regulatory costs: APRA capital requirements and anti-money laundering compliance add ongoing expense.

The pattern: Each factor hinges on macroeconomic conditions that are outside management’s control, making the stock a bet on the Australian economy rather than on ANZ alone.

Why is ANZ buying back shares?

Purpose of the buyback

ANZ launched a A$2 billion on-market buyback in the second half of 2024, a signal that the bank held excess capital after strong earnings. However, Morningstar notes that ANZ’s latest strategic plan includes ceasing the buyback and instead offering discounted dividend reinvestment plans.

Impact on share price and earnings per share

• The buyback has already reduced the share count, mechanically boosting EPS for FY2025.
• If it ceases, the EPS lift stops. Morningstar’s fiscal 2028 forecasts align with ANZ’s own target of 12% return on tangible equity — achievable, but not with buyback help.
• UBS argued ANZ’s share price ran ahead of fundamentals after the 1Q26 earnings update, partly due to buyback enthusiasm.

The catch: Without the buyback, EPS growth must come from genuine earnings improvement, which is a higher bar than financial engineering.

What is the next ANZ dividend?

Upcoming dividend dates and amounts

ANZ’s next dividend to be declared is the interim for fiscal 2025, expected in May 2025. The board has not yet announced the amount. For context, the final dividend for fiscal 2024 was A$0.83 per share, and Morningstar expects the board to hold the final FY2025 dividend flat at A$0.83.

The bank has already proposed an interim dividend of A$0.83 for fiscal 2026, partially franked at 75%, payable 1 July 2026.

Interim dividend for 2026

• 2026 interim dividend: A$0.83 per share (proposed).
• Franked at 75%.
• Payment date: 1 July 2026.
• DRP/BOP price set at A$35.31.

The trailing dividend yield of 5.2% is solid, but future yields depend on ANZ maintaining payouts as earnings grow. UBS projects FY27 yield at 4.2% (ex-franking), rising to 4.7% by FY30.

What this means: The dividend is stable for now, but the trajectory suggests a gradual decline in yield unless earnings accelerate.

Is ANZ a good buy now?

Pros of buying ANZ shares

• Strong dividend yield ~5.2%, backed by a well-capitalised balance sheet.
• Diversified earnings across institutional, retail, and New Zealand operations.
• Buyback (even if ceasing) has already reduced share count and supported EPS.
• Morningstar’s fair value of A$33 offers upside from current levels if cost targets are met.

Cons and risks

• UBS Sell rating: ANZ has run ahead of fundamentals after a 10% post-earnings rally.
• Economic slowdown would hit business loan growth and raise credit losses.
• Regulatory cost headwinds (APRA, AUSTRAC) are ongoing.
• Cessation of buyback removes EPS support.

Comparison with peers NAB and Westpac

NAB and Westpac also offer dividend yields in the 4.5%–5.5% range, but their risk profiles differ. NAB has a higher weighting to business lending (similar to ANZ), while Westpac leans more on mortgages. All three face the same interest rate and regulatory pressures, but ANZ’s exposure to Asia and institutional banking adds both diversification and volatility. No broker data suggests ANZ is dramatically over- or undervalued relative to its peers — the sector trades as a block.

The judgment: For the long-term ASX bank investor, ANZ looks reasonably priced but not cheap — the risk is that the economy turns before the plan pays off.

For investors weighing ANZ, the choice hinges on whether you trust the bank’s ability to hit its mid-40% cost/income ratio and 12% return on tangible equity by fiscal 2028. If you do, the dividend yield and the buyback tailwind (even as it winds down) offer support. If not, the upside is capped, and UBS’s sell rating may prove prescient. For the long-term ASX bank investor, ANZ looks reasonably priced but not cheap — the risk is that the economy turns before the plan pays off.

Frequently asked questions